The hottest subsidy gap is up to 240billion. How c

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How can distributed PV "create blood" when the subsidy gap reaches 240billion yuan

recently, there have been a lot of voices about the price reduction of PV. It is reported that the distributed photovoltaic subsidy may be reduced to 0.3 yuan/kwh from January 1, 2018

in this context, distributed photovoltaic is experiencing explosive growth. In the first half of 2017, the newly increased installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China relied on new energy materials, magnetic materials and other new material enterprises and new energy vehicle manufacturers, with 4.4 million KW, of which 17.29 million KW were photovoltaic power stations, a year-on-year decrease of 16%; Distributed photovoltaic power was 7.11 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 times

renxiaokun, deputy general manager of Yingli Distributed Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "yinneng"), told China Business Daily that the rapid and extensive development of the domestic photovoltaic industry during the period of ground power stations was constrained by the shortage of land resources, the abandonment of light in the West and other issues, and it was difficult to continue. However, the household photovoltaic power stations, which do not occupy land resources, have a smaller size, generate electricity nearby and merge nearby, are fully consistent with the characteristics of large power consumption and tight land resources in the eastern economically developed regions, so they are growing rapidly in the eastern region. However, household PV also faces a series of problems in the development

household photovoltaic power point

in recent years, driven by the renewable energy law and a series of policies and measures, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, with significant technological progress and rapid expansion of application scale. The installed capacity has ranked first in the world since 2015 and is playing an increasingly important role in China's energy transformation. According to the public data of the national energy administration, as of june30,2017, the installed capacity of China's photovoltaic power stations in the first half of the year was about 24million kW, including about 7million kW of distributed photovoltaic, an increase of about 7 times over the same period last year

according to the analysis of insiders, 2017 will be the first year of the real outbreak of home distributed PV

at present, many domestic enterprises, including yinneng, Jingke energy, Trinasolar and so on, have entered into household photovoltaic power stations. Taking yinneng as an example, the installed capacity in the first half of the year was mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Shandong, Hebei and other regions, with an installed capacity of more than 60000 kW, an increase of more than 100% over the same period last year

fenghaicheng, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, analyzed that the reason why the household PV power station ushered in the outbreak in 2017 was that the domestic power demand maintained a rapid growth, which led to the growth of household PV installation, and the economy became better and better. Moreover, with the continuous progress of photovoltaic industry technology, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has been declining, and the economy is getting higher and higher

in addition, policies guide the development of photovoltaic market towards distributed photovoltaic. For example, in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the photovoltaic project on the roof of millions of households has been launched, which has ushered in a blowout of new household photovoltaic installed capacity

in fact, as early as last year, Zhejiang Province issued the implementation opinions on promoting the construction of photovoltaic projects on the roofs of millions of families in Zhejiang Province (hereinafter referred to as the opinions). The opinions pointed out that in combination with the existing conditions, more than 1million household roof photovoltaic devices will be built in the province from 2016 to 2020, with a total installed capacity of about 3million kW. "Millions of roofs are in Zhejiang". As of the end of July this year, Zhejiang Province has generated 6.66 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power and 3.91 million kilowatts of household photovoltaic power, accounting for more than 50%. The number of household roof photovoltaic households has reached more than 85000, ranking first in China

it is noted that in addition to Zhejiang Province, Jiangxi, Shandong and other regions have also sent too much pressure in the compressor system to encourage the development of household photovoltaic power stations. The "ten thousand roofs" and even "ten thousand roofs" household photovoltaic development plan has also been issued

renxiaokun said that household PV is more suitable for economically developed and power consuming regions in the East, which is not easy to cause the problem of light abandonment and has higher energy efficiency

however, fenghaicheng also reminded that the vigorous development of household PV, the encouragement and support of national policies, and the drive of profits have caused a large number of market developers to rush into the household PV market, resulting in uneven market products, an impact on consumer confidence, and a reduction in the profit space of many enterprises

pressure of subsidy reduction

due to small investment, small occupation of capital and low industry threshold, a large number of enterprises and dealers have entered the household PV market

a dealer in Shandong said to that household PV began to improve in 2016, and the installed capacity increased sharply in the first half of this year. As a result, the number of relevant companies in the region has increased from several to a dozen

the dealer also said that, compared with picking up goods from regular suppliers, some dealers choose to appoint some private workshops to process components, and there is an act of OEM. As a result, the original 6 yuan/piece of battery panels are only sold for 3-4 yuan/piece. While showing the rear monitoring platform, he said: "we can now ensure that each household can generate about 30 watts of power every day, but the power generation capacity of the OEM components is unknown."

Ren Xiaokun analyzed this phenomenon. It is more or less common in every region. The root cause of this phenomenon is driven by interests and focused on the development of the industry. More and more people are crowding into this industry, such as those engaged in plumbing and household appliances. Due to the pursuit of short-term interests, these people did not choose the formal system brand as the promotion product, and they pieced together the system from the market to sell it to customers. This method can not fundamentally control the product quality, there are unstable factors in the system operation, and the 25 year sustainable income can not be guaranteed. As an enterprise, the main response is to correctly guide customers through publicity and choose regular channel products

it is learned that the China photovoltaic industry association is currently conducting research and preparing to formulate standards in the field of household distributed photovoltaic. At that time, the market will be more standardized

in addition to the vicious competition brought by poor manufacturers, policies are also a major factor affecting the development of household PV

the above dealers told that 90% of the households with installed PV power stations are to get subsidies. Tanzi et al. Also found that PCU is more stable in alkaline environment outside the body, and a small part of them are for their own use

"at present, we define the household photovoltaic power station as a kind of household electrical appliances with financial attributes. Due to the existence of state subsidies and the continuous decline of costs, the current rate of return for the installation of household photovoltaic power stations is about 10%. People mainly focus on its function of preserving and managing money. In all the steel trade ecology," renxiaokun said

however, the new energy parity is the general trend, and the speed is accelerating. At present, a number of demonstration projects have been announced on the wind power parity. With the gradual maturity of these demonstration projects, the pace of large-scale promotion on the wind power parity is also faster and faster. It is believed that the photovoltaic industry will also take action

renxiaokun said that the industry estimated that the subsidy for household photovoltaic kilowatt hour would be reduced in 2018. But at the same time, she said that the reduction of subsidies may not trigger a new round of rush to install, because while subsidies are decreasing, costs are also decreasing, and the total yield is unchanged

according to wangshujuan, an expert consultant of the energy investment committee of China Investment Association, the subsidy gap will reach 240billion yuan by 2020. At present, about 3/4 of photovoltaic projects have not received subsidies

according to yinneng company's prediction, photovoltaic power generation will achieve parity by 2020. At that time, the cancellation of subsidies will be a high probability event. As the cost of photovoltaic power generation is lower than the cost of thermal power, users installing household photovoltaic power stations will not only be limited to rural areas, but also urban households will become customer groups. Therefore, the household PV market will be further expanded, and the continuous decline in costs will pose a severe test to the operation of enterprises. Enterprises with too much investment and unable to reduce costs will be difficult to survive. At the same time, the public's demand for quality will make it difficult for small integrators who do not pay attention to quality to survive

therefore, enterprises should try their best to reduce product costs and improve product quality through technological progress and improving management capabilities, so as to cope with the coming era of parity

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